Tuesday, April 28, 2020

If It Saves One Life . . .


     Speaking of anti-coronavirus measures, New York governor Andrew Cuomo has been quoted as saying "if everything we do saves just one life, I'll be happy."
     And, to give equal time, Vice-President Pence said "As the President said, if your actions result in only saving one life, they’re worth taking."
     Although politicians have a natural aversion to stating anything in its extreme form, the above statements are evidence that attention is being paid to quite a bold statement: there is a moral imperative to save a life that trumps all other considerations. What are the implications of such a statement?

  "Five-thousand Americans die each year from choking on solid food. We could save every one of those lives by mandating that all meals be pureed. Pureed food isn’t appetizing, but if it saves just one life, it must be worth doing." ~Antony Davies, James R. Harrigan
To this can be added:
 ---35,000 Americans die each year in motor-vehicle-related accidents. We could save every one of those lives by banning motor vehicle travel. Sure, the division of labor and the economy would break down from lack of transportation, but if it saved just one life, it must be worth doing. (If anyone was thinking that we could replace motor vehicle transport with animal transport, think again. About 100 people a year die in riding or animal-drawn vehicle accidents.)

---About 250 people are killed by trains each year. We could save every one of those lives by closing down the railroads. Sure, the division of labor would break down from lack of transportation, but if it saved just one life, it must be worth doing.

---4,000 Americans die each year from drowning. We could save every one of those lives by filling in swimming pools and forbidding people to go near bodies of water over 3" deep. Sure, we'd have to give up seafood, water-borne transport, and the benefits of swimming as exercise, but if it saved just one life, it must be worth doing. 

---500 Americans die each year from causes related to machinery. We could save every one of those lives by destroying all machines. Sure, we'd have to go back to subsistence agriculture, but if it saved just one life, it must be worth doing. 

---2000 Americans are murdered each year with knives. We could save every one of those lives by a manufacturing ban and a program to collect and destroy knives. Sure, you'd have to eat most of your food raw (cutting food into pieces suitable for cooking is an integral part of the cooking process, in case you aren't familiar with the art of cooking), but if it saved just one life, it must be worth doing.

     By now, you probably get the picture and could make up your own examples. The point is that the argument that begins "If it saves just one life . . ." is a ridiculous argument.

     It's truly dismaying that politicians feel they have to cater to this low common denominator. Hopefully, they are overestimating the number of voters who would be swayed by such an argument, but I'm not optimistic!

Saturday, April 25, 2020

The Boy Who Cried "Wolf"

". . . when we are alarmed with imaginary dangers in respect of the public, till the cry grows quite stale and threadbare, how can it be expected we should know when to guard ourselves against real ones?" ~Samuel Croxall (c. 1690 – 1752)
     Aesop's Fable #210 is about a boy who, in his capacity as a shepherd guarding his sheep from wolves, amused himself by crying "wolf." Hearing the cry, the villagers ran to his assistance, only to be laughed at as fools for responding to a false alarm. However, when one day the boy's sheep actually were attacked by wolves, his cries no longer served to summon aid from the villagers, as they had by that time formed the impression that he was attempting to trick them as usual.
     The enduring popularity of this fable and its adoption into language as a well-known idiom (to "cry wolf," meaning to assert vociferously that there is danger when in reality there is none) attests to its power to represent a very general aspect of human life in society, and also says something about communication.
     But one aspect of the fable that is perhaps not often examined is the economic aspect. Why, for example, were the villagers unwilling to come to the boy's aid after being deceived so many times? Were they just angry at being made fools of? Perhaps. But the fact that they had been willing to come to the boy's aid in the first place might suggest a more complex explanation.
     Although such details are not reported in the fable, what was the economy of the village like?
     Were the sheep common property of the village, in which case having them devoured by wolves would probably represent a severe loss to the village as a whole, or were they owned by a certain individual? Given the antiquity of the fable and certain assumptions that seem to be made, I would guess the former. The boy then, had been entrusted with guarding the village's sheep.
     If the sheep belonged to the village as a whole, then every villager could be expected to have a strong interest in guarding them. Yet, they acquiesced in entrusting this important task to an unreliable agent---the boy who cried "wolf" when there were none. And according to the fable, after multiple such false alarms, the boy still continued in his role as shepherd; he wasn't fired!
     There could be various explanations for this. One that seems likely to me is that the village was so close to subsistence that they couldn't afford to replace the boy with a more reliable shepherd. In agricultural societies, it's typical for young children to do the work of shepherding while older children and adults engage in the more physically demanding work of agriculture.
     What can be overlooked in the simple understanding of the fable as a cautionary tale against mendacity is that the response of the villagers to the boy's crying "wolf" represented a significant economic cost to the village. If it were not so, the boy's crying "wolf" would not have enraged the villagers to such an extent. But it can be assumed that the meadow where the sheep grazed was a significant distance from the cultivated fields (this is typically so) and that the villagers lost a significant amount of time and energy in responding to the false alarms which manifested itself in lower productivity and perhaps even starvation. Agricultural production in a subsistence economy is a serious matter.
     Like the boy who cried wolf, epidemic modelers may someday produce an accurate epidemic model. But in the meantime, responding to their inaccurate models will come at a cost.

Friday, April 17, 2020

COVID-19---The Moral Arguments

     Amidst all the hoopla of COVID-19 are lurking some moral arguments. "Morality" in this case refers to the question of what one should or should not be allowed to do that affects another person. A more precise word is "justice."

1. Rules of Justice Abrogated in Existential Crisis

     First of all, it has to be admitted that rules of justice are laid aside in an existential crisis. This has to do with the genetically-inherited will to survive which predates civilization. An existential crisis could be a military invasion, a global environmental catastrophe, or an epidemic such as the Black Death whose transmission mechanism is not understood (in the 14th century). The point about an existential crisis is that not enough is known to enable logical responses to be formulated, and so any course of action may be tried, including violating individual rights as "collateral damage." However, COVID-19 is not such a crisis. Enough is understood about the virus such that it does not constitute an existential threat and rules of justice don't need to be abrogated, even on a temporary basis.

2. Does the State Have the Right to Determine What Everyone's Assumption of Risk Should Be?
   
     Many activities that human beings engage in are risky. Activities such as driving a car, engaging in certain activities or occupations, traveling by air, etc., are avoidable risks that most (but not all) people are willing to assume according to their own personal risk-reward assessments.
     The argument goes, however, that allowing people to choose their own risk levels during an epidemic forces everyone to assume the same (minimal) level of caution.
     While this might be of concern in epidemics that cause an existential crisis, it's not true for COVID-19. Data on the COVID-19 virus suggest that 1) most infected people are asymptomatic or recover, and 2) most at-risk people can be identified in advance. Therefore, it's possible for individuals to assess their own personal level of risk without forcing other people to assume a potentially deadly level of risk.
   
3. Should a Person Be Held Responsible for Transmitting a Disease to Another Person?

     Can a person ever be held responsible for transmitting a disease to another person? Legal tradition holds that individuals are not responsible for Acts of Nature as such phenomena are held to be out of our control.
     On the other hand, if an individual A were to knowingly, either out of malice or negligence, transmit a disease to an individual B, there should be a prima facie case against A. B would however, have to prove that 1) he or she had suffered objective harm (tort), and 2) that A was responsible.

4. Should the State Proactively Prevent Possible Tortious Transmissions of Disease?
   
     If there is a chance that an individual could harm another, should the State act preemptively to prevent the possibility? Many would say "yes." However, if this principle were followed consistently, engaging in all potentially harmful activities would have to be banned. Suffice it to say that proponents of such measures never advocate that they be applied consistently, only on an arbitrary, case-by-case basis. This obviously collides with standards for just social rules (universalizability).
     Another problem with this attitude is that it's application would violate one of the basic principles of traditional Anglo-Saxon jurisprudence: that an individual is innocent until proven guilty.

5. Property and Choice of Risk Levels
   
     Like all questions pertaining to justice, choosing risk-levels can most logically be based on the concept of property. Each property owner can create a risk-level policy for his or her own property. Individuals can decide which properties they want to enter (or not) based on the various risk-level policies.
     The question becomes, of course, muddied for "public" property. Although it's based on the injustice of forcibly-appropriated resources, bureaucrats and politicians as "property managers" can and do assume the risk-level policy creation function, since, to some extent, they always do exercise some ownership rights over public property.

COVID-19 Links

Recently the COVID-19 virus has been getting a lot of attention in the press which in turn has led politicians to implement draconian public health measures and restrictions. Here, I will post some resources for understanding the argument that the response of politicians as advised by their public health advisors has almost certainly been disproportionate to the danger.

Prof. Marc Lipsitch---the only proven factor in the eradication or suppression of a virus is herd immunity:https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

Dr. Knut Wittkowski interview and draft of scientific paper---lockdowns have different effects on an epidemiological curve depending on when they are instituted. If successful, fatalities in the early phase may be delayed until a later phase with no difference in total fatalities. https://ratical.org/PerspectivesOnPandemic-II.html

Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel---strict lockdowns in various countries have not resulted in statistical differences when compared with countries where less severe measures were instituted. https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

Ioaniddis vs. Lipsitch---while many epidemiologists recommend lockdown on the subjective principle that in lieu of data, better to be safe at all costs, not all scientists agree. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423

Dr. John Ioaniddis---authorities, statisticians, and epidemiologists are drawing conclusions and making recommendations based on too little data: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Dr. Scott Jensen interview---cause of death information, on which models of COVID-19 that inform policy decisions are based, may be unreliable due to conflicting CDC guidelines: https://www.foxnews.com/media/physician-blasts-cdc-coronavirus-death-count-guidelines

Prof. Johan Giesecke interview---lockdown measures have no scientific basis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=bfN2JWifLCY&feature=emb_logo

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya interview---no scientific data on which to base policy decisions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UO3Wd5urg0&feature=emb_rel_end

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7v2F3usNVA

Government statistics for COVID-19 deaths inflated
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/birx-says-government-is-classifying-all-deaths-of-patients-with-coronavirus-as-covid-19-deaths-regardless-of-cause

Ioaniddis interview,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=433&v=d6MZy-2fcBw&feature=emb_logo

Wittkowski interview,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

Katz interview: protect high-risk people vs. lockdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VK0Wtjh3HVA

Ioaniddis, follow-up interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPqmLoZA4s

White House does its part to stoke hysteria
https://www.cato.org/blog/did-mitigation-save-two-million-lives?utm_campaign=Cato%20Today&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=86575343&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8Xx-7gcZemlF6ZwExbxcw3RyNFHkuAcbDgi_tZo04G4tf8vV4aRWuaLA4JbgHLBswb-GsfXKpUlmU5hIyDs26R5DVKyQ&_hsmi=86575343

Dr. Richard Sullivan: lockdown causes more cancer fatalities than COVID-19.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1268059/cancer-deaths-coronavirus-nhs

Prof. Dr. Med. Sucharit  Bhakdi: some hard questions for Chancellor Merkel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=96&v=N-qk-nenbt0&feature=emb_logo

Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg: Coronavirus epidemic is a fraud.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qwiyxedC_o

Drs. Daniel Erickson and Artin Massih: Don't quarantine the healthy!
https://www.aier.org/article/open-up-society-now-say-dr-dan-erickson-and-dr-artin-massihi/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=emb_logo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

Dr. Katz interviewed by Bill Maher
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=96&v=Lze-rMYLf2E&feature=emb_logo

Death certificate corruption
https://fee.org/articles/physicians-say-hospitals-are-pressuring-er-docs-to-list-covid-19-on-death-certificates-here-s-why/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FEEDaily

Historian Phillip Magness examines ICL statistical data
https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/

Mathematician Wesley Pegden asks MSM to honestly present the effects of flattening the curve:
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

The temptation to base research on faulty protocols may make it more difficult to develop a vaccine
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6490/476

Dr. Michael Levitt, structural biologist and Nobel Prize winner, calls indiscriminate lockdown "a huge mistake."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl-sZdfLcEk

German virologist actually does a study and finds IFR of 0.24-0.36%., much lower than Ferguson's 0.8-0.9%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrL9QKGQrWk

Dr. Steven Shaprio: time to open up
https://inside.upmc.com/shapiro-economy-roundtable/

Dr. Ioaniddis in interview with Greek TV
https://fee.org/articles/modelers-were-astronomically-wrong-in-covid-19-predictions-says-leading-epidemiologist-and-the-world-is-paying-the-price/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2020_FEEDaily

An open letter from various Canadian health authorities cautioning against the goal of trying to eradicate the COVID-19 virus.
http://balancedresponse.ca/

A study that has been claimed to prove that wearing masks (and other protective measures) reduces infections. But the study's methodology is  a Patient Reported Outcome survey (patients say what they experienced) which is one of the weakest study designs, with no collaboration by medical evidence or medical staff.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e4.htm

A great essay that touches on methodological problems in epidemiology and economics.
https://www.aier.org/article/what-economists-can-teach-epidemiologists/

A recent assessment of models related to COVID-19
https://www.aier.org/article/the-models-were-wildly-wrong-about-reopening-too/

A skeptical examination of the science behind wearing masks:

"Hygiene Theater" from the Atlantic.

Fact-checking Fauci (Magness)

The Cognitive Biases Behind the Response to COVID-19

Lockdown statistics

NPI effectiveness

Summary of Difference Between Sweden and other Nordic Countries

The Masque of Red Death as allegory for COVID-19

This list will be updated when and if new information comes to my attention.