"The state's top health official says the key to slowing the spread of COVID-19 could be finding a way to reach the people who believe they're the least likely to get infected of suffer ill effects.Let's examine the assumptions behind Dr. Christ's statements.
Dr. Cara Christ said the biggest group of positive test results is now among those age 20 through 44.
'They're likely not the ones who are going to have the outcomes and the risk factors from COVID-19,' she told Capitol News Services.
'But we need everybody to keep in mind that all of us have connections to loved ones and family members that all of us have connections to loved ones and family members that are high risk or people out in the community,' Christ said. 'And that's what we're trying to protect by containing the spread.'
The trick now, she said, is crafting a message that is designed with that audience in mind.
"We do want to see these numbers go down and we want to see the percent positivity go down,' Christ said.
That, however, means convincing individuals to act safely---including those who may believe that even if they don't think they're invincible that contracting the virus won't really hurt them. And that, Christ said, comes back to the messages of physically distancing and wearing a mask while out in public when staying six feet from others is impossible.
That message, however, is not getting across to those in the 20-to-44-year old demographic, she said, as evidenced by the high number of people in that age group who are testing positive for the virus---and as shown by videos of people crowding bars without masks.
These are the people who are less likely to suffer severe adverse effects. But they're clearly coming down with---and probably transmitting---the disease.
Consider: Of more than 43,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 so far, more than 46 percent fall into that age group.
But they make up less than a third of the population.
Yet, they're not dying at the same rate of the disease, accounting for just 67 of the more than 1,300 deaths.
Christ said exhortations for these people to protect themselves apparently does not work. So that, she said, requires a change in the message.
'We need everybody to keep in mind that all of us have connections to loved ones and family members that are high risk, or people out in the community,' she said.
'We need everyone to think about, "You may not feel sick, you may not think that you've been infected,"' Christ said. And a lot of people appear symptomatic.
'So it's really important that if you are going to be within six feet of somebody you have got to wear that mask,' she said.
Can wearing masks and physical distancing have any effect on the spread of the virus?
Theoretically, wearing masks and physical distancing could slow down the virus if implemented at a certain stage of the spread of the virus. However, there is no way of knowing exactly what stage one is at during the spread of the virus---such a determination can only be made ex post. Therefore, it can't be stated with certainty that wearing masks and social distancing have any effect on the spread of the virus.
Slowing down the spread of COVID-19 is a desirable thing.
There are only two reasons commonly given for wanting to slow the spread of the virus:
1) To avoid overwhelming medical facilities. When it's said that medical facilities, the capacity of which has been determined by the state department of health of which Dr. Christ is the head, could be overwhelmed, they are talking about indoor ICU beds. There is nothing wrong with treating patients in field hospitals which, being outside, would lessen the danger of the spread of the virus.
2) To give researchers time to develop a vaccine. Unfortunately, vaccines against respiratory diseases have not historically been all that effective. They also require a long time to develop. Meanwhile, COVID viruses mutate rapidly which limits a vaccine's period of usefulness.
Note that the claim is not made that slowing down the spread of COVID-19 will result in fewer deaths. If there is no vaccine, anyone who hasn't already contracted the disease will be a target for the virus. The only thing that could possibly protect uninfected people in the long run would be herd immunity. But slowing down the spread of the virus retards the formation of herd immunity.
Getting everyone to wear masks and physically distance will protect high-risk people.
It would if it could be implemented at exactly the right time (which can't be known), and if everyone went along with it. However, wouldn't it be more effective to concentrate on protecting the high-risk people instead of wasting resources on implementing measures that include low-risk people?
I've yet to hear a persuasive argument that there are any benefits from measures that keep low-risk people from getting the virus.
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